Are the US Stocks Bottomed Out

I am not going to post any chart today. This is more of a commentary on what is going to happen in the US Stock market going forward and its impact on the US Dollar. Now i am not going to convince every body that market has bottomed out, the angels are falling from sky to help investors and the Obama is the superman for a nation in debt. Certainly, nothing has changed since Nov 2008. I believe that market is waiting for another leg down. This time, however, its going to be slow and steady downward trend. I see the DJI level of 8000 as medium term bottom/support. The next leg down should cover another 1000 point of DJI. That is expected to happen when the earnings season is fully over, oil drops again to US $ 35 levels, and Obama administration fails to attract Congress.

Now, on FX, as this forum is focused on Forex moves/charts. I am forecasting a one sided view here and not being Technical for a while. Fundamentals suggest that US dollar will be the superhero for the next 6 months as i see Euro to dive to 1.20 or below, GBP down @ 1.20-1.25, CAD 1.35.

This is based on the following. US has already lowered interested rates to near zero. Other are going to follow that soon. By Dec 09, ALL G7 will have zero percent Interest rates. By that time, i believe that the US will start increasing to tighten inflation issues.

The risk aversion continues to dominate.

Euro and GBP loses their charm as safe deposit Assets. I have a feeling if a European nation goes bust, may be the fate of Euro is in doubt and then a dive to parity may be.




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